THE ROLE OF SMALL STATES IN GEOPOLITICAL POWER STRUGGLES IN THE HORN OF AFRICA: A CASE STUDY OF DJIBOUTI

RAŠOVIĆ Stefan (PhD student at the Faculty of Security Studies, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia), stefan.rasovic95@gmail.com

This paper asks how Djibouti, as a small state with minimal material capacities, leverages its geostrategic position to navigate competing great power interests in the Horn of Africa, and what the implications of this strategy are for its autonomy and long-term development. This paper explores the role of small states in geopolitical power struggles in the Horn of Africa, focusing on Djibouti as a case study. Its conceptual and analytical framework is organised primarily around small state survival strategies, especially shelter theory and strategies of influence, while Mearsheimer’s offensive realism is used only as a contextual tool for characterising the great power environment. The initial assumptions of the paper are that Djibouti is increasing its geopolitical role by implementing survival strategies whose essence is “renting” territory for military bases of foreign states, achieving economic benefits with increased risks of dependence and regional tensions, and that, under the pressure of great power rivalry, Djibouti operationalises its declared neutrality through hedging. Hedging is understood here as the active diversification of external relations, while neutrality refers to the proclaimed political posture of non-alignment in bloc conflicts. The paper’s primary contribution is to the small states’ literature on survival strategies and foreign policy behaviour, using Djibouti as an empirical case that situates small state theory in the Horn of Africa area studies context. Through the analysis of Djibouti’s role in geopolitical power struggles, the paper shows how this small state uses its geostrategic position and limited resources to shape regional dynamics. This happens amid current tensions, including Houthi attacks, US-China rivalry, and proxy conflicts, highlighting that small states are not merely passive objects of great power competition, but can also be active participants that use geostrategic capital for economic benefits, diplomatic autonomy, and influence on regional security.

Keywords: Small states; geopolitics; Djibouti; strategy; struggle; power; offensive realism; neorealism; John Mearsheimer.