THE GREAT POWERS’ GEOPOLITICAL COMPETITION OVER THE BALKANS – THE INFLUENCE OF THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS

ZARIĆ Ivan (PhD, member of the Institute of Asian Studies), ivanzaric@yahoo.com
BUDIMIR Željko (Assistant Professor, Faculty of Political Sciences, University of Banja Luka), zeljko.budimir@fpn.unibl.org

The object of this paper is a geopolitical analysis of the great powers’ competition in the Balkans. The main reason for the research is the unquestionable impact that the Ukrainian crisis, which is divided in the paper into two phases, has on the Balkans. The authors emphasised that competition between the US and Russia is dominant, while China is geopolitically suppressed. For the US, the main geopolitical framework is Euro-Atlanticism and the policy of NATO enlargement as its most important instrument. Also, it was argued that the EU’s approach is completely complementary to NATO’s. Regarding Russia, the phases of the neoEurasian geopolitical concept and their influence on practical policy were explored. Russia’s primary goal is to prevent further NATO expansion, but that policy has experienced several failures in the Balkans. Four scenarios for ending military operations in Ukraine were analysed and their influence on the Balkans assessed. The main conclusion is that the Balkans will continue to be the object of competition between the great powers, and that the extent to which the balance of power between Euro-Atlanticism and Eurasianism will be possible will depend on the outcome of the current Ukrainian crisis.

Keywords: Great powers; US; NATO; EU; Russia; China; Ukraine; geopolitics; Balkans