ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF BREXIT – PRELIMINARY COST- BENEFIT ANALYSIS

DIMITRIJEVIĆ Bojan (Bojan Dimitrijević, PhD. Belgrade business school), dbojan1@mts.rs
DŽELETOVIĆ Milenko (Milenko Dželetović, PhD. University Educons), milenko.dzeletovic@gmail.com

On 23 June, the British citizens voted for leaving the full membership in the European Union. It is a historical event for the country, but also results in many economic and geopolitical consequences for Europe and the whole world. Therefore, the goal of the paper is to show the most important short and long term costs and benefits from leaving the European Union. The paper is to overview the comprehensive context of effects considering the uncertainty of the outcome of negotiations about the withdrawal from the union. In addition to the Introduction and Methodological Notes, the paper shows the short and the long term costs and benefits, states optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, quantifies the effects where applicable and describes consequences in a balanced manner. Considering the economic results in the post-referendum first quarter, it is concluded that the negative results from Brexit are, for the time being, overestimated.

Keywords: Brexit, costs and benefits, European Union, Free Trade Agreement, European Economic Area, foreign trade