The Review of International Affairs (RIA) Journal Archive
The Review of International Affairs (RIA) Vol. 67 No. 1161/2016
The Review of International Affairs (RIA), 2016 67(1161):5-20
New Silk Road is the strategic initiative that encompasses the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. It is commonly abbreviated as the Belt and Road. The main objective of the Belt and Road Initiative is to ensurestable and more balanced economic growth in China, as well as strengthening economic and transport connections with neighbours in Central Asia, with Europe, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa. China is the initiator and leader of connection and cooperation within the Belt and Road. However, the initiative represents a development opportunity not just for China,but also for over 60 countries that are lined along the new Silk Road. One of these countries is Serbia, whose position on the New Silk Road is determined by many factors
The Review of International Affairs (RIA), 2016 67(1161):21-44
China’s tremendous economic development has made China an increasingly attractive economic partner in the first and second decade of the 21st century. During this period, the ancient Silk Road trade route became attractive once again; today, it is a symbol for trade and investment involving China, Central Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. China’s “New Silk Road” development strategy consist of two geopolitical initiatives – one of them is the “Silk Road Economic Belt”, with stronger ties with Central Asia (and special focus on trade and transport) as a goal; the other is known as the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road”, and it is an attempt to improve trade relations with South and Southeast Asia. The authors argue that Belt and Road Initiatives bear political and economic consequences. They could bring about better political understanding and economic benefits for all participants. However, both initiatives will have consequences on the US’ dominance in international relations. While there are condemnations of the two initiatives, some parts of the EU (especially the Central and Eastern European countries) and ASEAN have high expectations from these initiatives. A successful fruit-bearing of these initiatives in the following ten years should thus ease the opponents’ concerns. To use China’s favourite foreign policy catchphrase, it is a “win-win” situation – China can achieve a softer image for itself while increasing its regional influence.
CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES’ (CEEC) AND SERBIA’S PERSPECTIVE AND POSITION TOWARDS CHINESE “ONE BELT, ONE ROAD” INITIATIVE―A GEO-POLITICAL OVERVIEW
The Review of International Affairs (RIA), 2016 67(1161):45-64
The paper presents an attempt related to Chinese “One Belt, One Road” initiative (2013) assessment from a geo-political perspective, focusing on the position and role of Serbia. In the context of deep World economic crisis and, at least, skeptical (if not opposite) influence and interests of Trans-Atlantic partners (USA and EU), China has constructively been aspiring to establish and maintain three continents’ network of intensive economic cooperation, trying to contribute to its own and mutual peaceful development. China-Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) cooperation is “regional” and linking aspect of emerging Strategic China-EU cooperation. In that geo-political context, starting from its Identity and Foreign policy priorities, Serbia has been showing the will and readiness to become an active Chinese partner and South-East European leader in “One Road, One Belt” initiative’s implementation.
POSSIBILITIES FOR PROMOTING INTERCONNECTIVITY BETWEEN CHINA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
The Review of International Affairs (RIA), 2016 67(1161):65-79
Since the end of the cold war, during the last two decades of the Twentieth century, became obvious European Union’s intention to overcome the image of the political dwarf and economic giant. One could come to conclusion that the EU was successful in that intention: its borders were spread, number of member countries reached 28, its market enlarged, population as well, even the policies for far away neighbours has been created. But, surprisingly or not, although the Union has almost succeeded in weakening the influence that Russia once had over the socialist countries, the European Union is now faced with another challenge. This challenge came with the emergence of the new strategy that was born in China, “One Road, One Belt” aiming to gather all European countries in order to secure better perspective for each. Unlikely most of the European initiatives or policies, this strategy is not based on conditionality. It is based on equality and openness without any hidden intentions. In this analysis, the authors, from the perspective of the non-EU country (although the candidate country for the EU membership), will give an insight into the possibilities for promoting interconnectivity between China and Central and Eastern European countries.
The Review of International Affairs (RIA), 2016 67(1161):80-100
The Peoples Republic of China has a new Government whose mandate started in 2013, and under which there are undergoing major changes in China both on internal and external level regarding its economy. After almost 30 years of growth that was around 10%, China’s GDP rate started to slowly fall down. During previous years, Chinese Governments were aware that some things in China’s economic model need to be changed, so it can continue to develop in a steady way. President Xi Jingping stated that there is a need for “New Normal” economy, that will help China’s adjusting to a new economic development model which will generate GDP growth rate of about 5-7%. In order to do so, the PRC must implement many changes on its domestic level, but also many changes on an international level within its international economic policies. This paper will present the economic factors that boosted China’s economy; why they need to change; what is a New Normal economy and how it will affect China’s economy, business and finances. At the same time, it will be shown how new Chinese initiatives on international level: “One Belt - One Road” and Summit “16+1”, are part of this New Normal policy on the international business market. The final part of this paper will be dedicated to Serbia’s place among Chinese international plans, in order to see what Serbia’s current projects with China are, what the future plans are and how Serbia can benefit from this new China’s plans.
The Review of International Affairs (RIA), 2016 67(1161):101-122
In the second decade of this century, the current international financial order is changing. China is becoming more generous lender of last resort for a large number of financially impoverished countries around the world by offering them generous support in yuan (the official name is renminbi) due to geopolitical reasons. China and Russia in the field of economic development strongly complement each other: the scope of cooperation is very broad, and there is a great potential for the establishment of the second worldwide currency, which would suppress the dollar as the dominant currency in global commodity and financial transactions. The financial crisis is shattered by the policy of rapid additional printing of money. Fight for increasing the competitiveness of its own state, at the expense of others, continues in the era of the deepest financial crisis in the world. Currency war is being undertaken by the “export rival” states which, explicitly or implicitly, devaluate the value of its currency to profit in foreign trade, i.e. increase exports. The devaluation of the renminbi causes confusion in the financial markets, raising the value of the US dollar, with a simultaneous sharp decline in the value of currencies in Asia, as well as shares of companies that export goods to China, with the new knockdown of oil and gold prices. Cheap oil destroys the current global financial system. The global currency war could encourage geopolitical tensions and affect the economic growth of others.
The Review of International Affairs (RIA), 2016 67(1161):123-141
Among other things that were changed in the last decades, we would like to point out China’s dynamic economic growth and re-strengthening Russian influence in international relations. These changes jeopardized the USA position as the only world power. The European Union is the most successful and largest economic integration in the world, but is falling behind the USA in political influence. The USA recognized growing Chinese economy as a major threat to its world dominance, and is trying to limit its spread. Among others, the USA is conducting trade negotiations which will cover, if they are successful, two large regions in the world- Atlantic and Pacific region. A series of trade negotiations are being carried out, mostly in secret, between the EU and USA in order to form a bi-lateral trade agreement - Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). On the other side, the USA is ending negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade agreement among Pacific Rim countries. What is indicative is that China is excluded from these negotiations. Chinese response to this USA moves in the international field was a complex one. China is focusing in several directions and levels and building connections with other emerging economies. It is important that China’s projects are financially very well-funded. The most important and biggest project is the revival of the Silk Road. The New Silk Road should uplift Eurasian economy, include large bilateral investment arrangements and produce a significant expansion of FDI. In this paper, we will present arguments to suggest that the Chinese response could be a successful one.
The Review of International Affairs (RIA), 2016 67(1161):142-161
The main research topic is the impact of the Chinese New Silk Road project on the Russian interests in one of the zones of its strongest traditional influence – Central Asian countries. The first part analyses the main benefits of this giant project for China, such as keeping the high growth rate by new investments, increasing export, stable and diversified energy supply and additional internationalization of its currency. The second part studies the position of one by one Central Asian country spreading between China and Russia. Here the statistics are given about the international trade of these countries with Russia and China during the last 15 years. In the same part of the research data about volume, direction and gains from Russian and Chinese investments into Central Asian countries are analysed and compared. This analysis clearly shows a decline of Russian influence in Central Asian countries caused by much greater benefit of China as a partner. The third part explores the reasons for the absence of Russian resistance to the project. Besides plenty of Chinese concessions to Russia, large investments, advantages in AIIB, favourable long-term gas deals, probably a more important reason for Russian approval of the Silk Road is its geopolitical position. After the crisis in the Russian relations with the EU, China has become its most reliable partner in all terms. Also, both countries are aware of a much higher priority of common goals: raising BRICS to the position of a globally important subject and keeping the region out of reach of the third parties.
The Review of International Affairs (RIA), 2016 67(1161):162-192
The purported risks in the Chinese shadow banking are not properly assessed. Given the silver-lining in parts of the shadow banking in China, which fills the gap between the growing demand for better financial services and products, a particularly prudent and balanced policy efforts seem necessary. Unlike the popular belief that stronger regulatory efforts are necessary to stem the negative spillovers of regulatory arbitrage, policy efforts need to concentrate on controlling specific vulnerabilities and fostering a forward-looking financial ecosystem. Better supervisory and regulatory efforts need to be combined with installing infrastructures to develop financial markets and to satisfy the growing needs for safe assets. (JEL E44, E50, E61, E62, E65, E66).
SERBIA ON THE SILK ROAD
The Review of International Affairs (RIA), 2016 67(1161):193-195
Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road
The Review of International Affairs (RIA), 2016 67(1161):197-209